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President Putin's staunch support for Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu has been highlighted by the failed coup attempt by Yevgeny Prigozhin's Wagner mercenaries. Shoigu, blamed by Prigozhin for the slow Ukrainian invasion and resulting Russian casualties, managed to maintain his position amid criticism. A video released since the attempted coup featuring Shoigu seems to emphasize that he is still active and important, and he wouldn’t be removed due to external pressure. However, his long-term standing could be weakened due to the rebellion's effect on his image. Perhaps, Putin might opt to dismiss Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov instead. Once the shock of the rebellion subsides, Putin might consider replacing Shoigu, thus avoiding the perception of yielding to pressure. This market resolves to “Yes” if at 00:00 by or on 1st January 2024 (UTC), both Sergei Shogu and Valery Girasimov are in post as Defence Minister and Chief of Staff respectively. (It also resolves “Yes” if they temporarily leave their post but are back in post by the end of the year). It resolves according to the New York Times reporting of Russian Government sources - ie the New York Times must report that the Russian Government has said this (as opposed to a belief that one has been removed). It resolves “No” if one or both of them are not in post at the end of the year. If the names of the posts are changed, this market will resolve “No”.

Advisory Committee Motion #24

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